Africa: Boeing Forecasts a Demand for 1,025 New Airplanes Over the Next Two Decades
As the African aviation sector experiences a surge in traffic, Boeing has projected a substantial demand for new airplanes in the region. According to the company's forecast, there will be a need for 1,025 new planes over the next 20 years to support the rapid growth in intra-African passenger traffic, which is expected to quadruple in the same period. This article explores the details of Boeing's forecast and its implications for the African aviation industry.
Boeing's 2023 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) reveals that the growth rate of African air traffic is anticipated to be 7.4%, positioning it as the third highest globally and surpassing the global average growth rate of 6.1%. The data underscores the potential for African carriers to enhance intra-regional traffic and capture a significant market share by offering services that efficiently connect passengers within the continent.
Randy Heisey, Boeing's Managing Director of Commercial Marketing for the Middle East and Africa, noted that single-aisle airplanes like the Boeing 737 MAX would be the most sought-after, forecasting an increase in the average aircraft size and seats per aircraft for the African fleet.
The recovery pace of African aviation traffic in 2023 has been robust, driven by pent-up demand and economic growth spurred by high global commodity prices. Currently, African airline flights are 8% above pre-pandemic levels. The region's above-average long-term annual economic growth of 3.4%, increasing urbanization rates, and a burgeoning middle-class population are expected to sustain the demand for air travel in the long term. Initiatives such as the African Continental Free Trade Area and the Single African Air Transport Market are anticipated to boost trade and intra-regional connectivity further.
Detailed Projections Through 2042
The 2023 Africa CMO also outlined several projections for the period up to 2042, including:
- A 4.5% per year growth in regional airlines' fleets to accommodate passenger traffic growth, with Europe remaining the most significant origin/destination for travelers to and from Africa.
- Over 70% of commercial deliveries will be single-aisle jets, amounting to 730 new planes, primarily supporting domestic and intra-regional demand. Additionally, there will be a demand for 275 new widebodies, including passenger and cargo models, to facilitate long-haul routes and air freight growth.
- Nearly 90% of African jet deliveries will be more fuel-efficient models such as the 737 MAX, 777X, and 787 Dreamliner, with almost one in five deliveries replacing older airplanes.
- A rising demand for aviation personnel, with a need for 69,000 new professionals, including 21,000 pilots, 22,000 technicians, and 26,000 cabin crew members.
- Commercial services opportunities valued at $105 billion, encompassing supply chain, manufacturing, repair, and overhaul.
Boeing's forecast paints a promising picture for the African aviation industry, with a significant demand for new airplanes to cater to the rapidly growing passenger traffic within the region. The focus on more fuel-efficient aircraft aligns with global sustainability goals, positioning the African aviation sector for substantial growth over the next two decades.
For more details, explore the complete CMO here.
Note: This article is based on the press release issued by Boeing and aims to present a factual and descriptive summary of Boeing's forecast for the African aviation industry.